iron ore

Last week, in the Chinese iron ore import market, the price of 62% purity iron ore fluctuated slightly between $98 and $100, rising from $98.35 to $99.9 per ton cfr. Despite macroeconomic concerns and trade tensions with the United States, demand growth outpaced supply and prices rose slightly.

Scrap

In the Turkish scrap import market, the price of heavy scrap has dropped by 20-80 to 10 dollars and has reached about 348 dollars per ton cfr. Of course, the price had reached 346 dollars in the middle of the week, but the increase in buying interest has slightly increased the price. Japanese heavy export scrap class 2 also rose from 298 dollars to 300 dollars per ton fob. The average price of heavy import scrap in East Asia was also heard to be stable at 343 dollars per ton cfr.

billet

Last week, the average price of Black Sea export billet was recorded at $435 per ton fob. It remained relatively stable. In the domestic Chinese market, the billet price rose from $406 to $403 per ton ex-works. Chinese export billet also rose from $429 to $425 per ton fob.

In the Southeast Asian import market, billet prices fell by $2 and were reported at $447 per ton CFR. In Turkey, billet import prices fell from $456 per ton CFR to $454 per ton CFR last week. In the Iranian market, demand fell due to the decline in the exchange rate and prices fell.

Sections

Last week, the price of Chinese rebar exports was stable at $450 per ton fob. On the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the rebar futures contract for May delivery rose to $421 per ton from $428 the previous week. The price of Turkish rebar exports was also recorded at $550 per ton fob. Also, last week, imported rebar in Southeast Asia rose to $459 per ton cfr from $457 the previous week.

Meanwhile, in the US domestic market, rebar remained stable at $795 per short ton ex-factory. In the European domestic market, rebar remained unchanged at €620 per short ton ex-factory.

In the Iranian market, the decline in demand due to the psychological atmosphere resulting from the negotiations also lowered the price of rebar. Despite market construction, fears of a price drop also lowered the demand and price of A-beams.

sheet
Last week, hot rolled sheet export FOB Black Sea remained at $485 per ton FOB. Chinese hot rolled sheet export fell from $475 to $471 per ton FOB. In Southeast Asia, the average price of imported hot rolled sheet fell by $5 to $484 per ton CFR.
In the European domestic market, the ex-factory price of hot rolled sheet remained stable at €650, while in the US domestic market, the price of hot rolled sheet fell by $5 to $920 per short ton ex-factory.

In the Iranian market, the price of a 2-millimeter sheet in Mobarakeh was 450,000 rials in Saturday’s trading, which reached 423,000 rials by Wednesday. The stagnation in demand caused the supply to increase and the price to fall. Other owners of the sheet also wanted to sell and lowered the price. The decrease in demand and market fear also lowered the price of oiled sheet. The decrease in the price of hot-rolled sheet and the decrease in demand also caused the price of galvanized sheet to fall.

Analysis of the week

Global market
Global markets are in deep turmoil, due to two factors: first, the impact of Trump’s tariffs and second, the global recession. Oil, which has been less affected by Trump’s policies, has seen its price drop to below $70. At the same time, bullion prices have also fallen sharply, and their decline will cause many factories to stop production. The global market outlook also does not show a positive sign for the future. The way out of this situation depends on many factors. The most important of which is the issue of US and Iranian policies..

Iron ore prices stabilized with minor fluctuations, sheltered by Rio Tinto’s production cuts. Iron ore reached a minimum of $99.90 CFR. Ingots in the domestic Chinese market were $415 ex-factory and scrap fell $10 to $347 CFR Turkey. Prices are at the same level as last year and will continue to trend this week unless tariffs disrupt the market.

Domestic market
The Iranian market is in shock from the Iran-US negotiations. Unfortunately, official circles do not provide a perspective on the analysis and economic situation after the lifting of sanctions. It was hoped that after the improvement of conditions, the economic community would grow, but for now, the problems still persist. The fever of inflation has not subsided and the downward trend of the exchange rate is also slow.

Apart from the budget deficit, the government has to decide on the issue of bonds, and most importantly, the energy imbalance that will reduce production. Nothing special has happened in the steel market, the ingot rate in the Iranian market is almost equivalent to the export rate multiplied by the exchange rate, not the free market rate, the discussion of negotiations also took out the product price bubble. Therefore, a serious drop in steel prices is not expected.This theory assumes the stability of the current situation. With a power outage, the entire chain will be disrupted. In addition, the cost of production has increased by about 20 percent compared to the previous year, depending on the production method. Therefore, the Iranian iron market does not have much room for decline even if the exchange rate reaches 70 Tomans, because in the current situation, it is offered on the stock exchange at this rate.

The only factor affecting the steel market in the short term is the fear of demand and its retreat. We are witnessing that the producers of the finished product have turned to selling raw materials due to the lack of sales.

This issue will become more serious in the coming weeks, but its continuation depends on maintaining production levels. The power outage will affect steel production the most in the medium term, which will reduce its supply.

Source: Iran Steel News Agency

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